USD/CAD steadies near 1.3800 as Canada jobs slump offsets US Dollar weakness

• USD/CAD steadies near 1.3800 after rebounding from a four-day low.
• Canada shed 65.5K jobs in August, unemployment rose to 7.1%, boosting BoC rate cut bets.
• US NFP showed only 22K jobs added, with unemployment at 4.3%, dragging the US Dollar and Treasury yields lower.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens on Friday after dismal labor market data, but broad US Dollar (USD) softness following a weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report kept USD/CAD's upside in check. The pair is holding near the 1.3800 handle, rebounding from a four-day low in the aftermath of the release.

Canada's economy shed 65.5K jobs in August, marking the steepest decline since January 2022, following a 40,800 drop in the previous month, and sharply missing forecasts for a 7,500 gain. While the Unemployment Rate rose to 7.1% from 6.9%. The Participation Rate slipped to 65.1%, pointing to broader labor market slack, though Average Hourly Wages rose 3.6% YoY, up from 3.5% previously. The weak report reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates at its September 17 meeting, weighing on the Loonie.

In fixed income markets, Canadian government bond yields fell sharply, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.26%, its lowest level since June 24, as investors ramped up bets on BoC easing. The slump in domestic yields deepened pressure on the CAD, offsetting the effect of broad US Dollar weakness.

In the United States, the August NFP report also undershot expectations, with the economy adding only 22K jobs versus the 75K forecast. The Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest since late 2021, while wage growth held steady at 0.3% MoM and 3.7% YoY. The data drove US Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year at 4.09% and the 2-year at 3.50%, both at their lowest since April 7. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slid below 98.00, trading near 97.50, though USD/CAD remained supported as Canada's deeper labor market slump overshadowed US softness.

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is consolidating above the 50-day SMA at 1.3743, with the pair holding near the 1.3800 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 signals neutral momentum, while a low Average Directional Index (ADX) reading around 18 indicates weak trend strength. Immediate support lies at 1.3740, followed by 1.3700, while resistance is seen at 1.3850 and 1.3900, with a break higher exposing the 1.4000 psychological barrier.