Select Language

Forex Today: US Dollar remains within weekly range ahead of employment data

Breaking news

Forex Today: US Dollar remains within weekly range ahead of employment data

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS

  • X
  • facebook
  • LINE
  • RSS
New update 2025.09.05 16:21
Forex Today: US Dollar remains within weekly range ahead of employment data

update 2025.09.05 16:21

Here is what you need to know on Friday, September 5:

The action in financial markets quiet down early Friday as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of the highly-anticipated August employment report from the US, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures. Statistics Canada will publish August jobs data as well.

The US Dollar (USD) Index edged higher in the second half of the day on Thursday but lost its traction to close the day with small gains as risk flows dominated the action in the American session. The data from the US showed that the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved to 52 in August from 50.1 in July. This print came in better than the market expectation of 51. Meanwhile, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that private sector payrolls rose by 54,000 in August, falling short of analysts' estimate of 65,000.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.20% 0.31% 0.84% 0.46% 0.16% 0.37% 0.57%
EUR -0.20% 0.11% 0.57% 0.26% -0.04% 0.16% 0.37%
GBP -0.31% -0.11% 0.36% 0.15% -0.15% 0.05% 0.31%
JPY -0.84% -0.57% -0.36% -0.32% -0.67% -0.45% -0.24%
CAD -0.46% -0.26% -0.15% 0.32% -0.29% -0.10% 0.16%
AUD -0.16% 0.04% 0.15% 0.67% 0.29% 0.20% 0.46%
NZD -0.37% -0.16% -0.05% 0.45% 0.10% -0.20% 0.26%
CHF -0.57% -0.37% -0.31% 0.24% -0.16% -0.46% -0.26%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

In the European morning on Friday, the USD Index fluctuates in a tight range above 98.00. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US are forecast to increase by 75,000 in August and the Unemployment Rate is seen ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2% in July. In the meantime, US stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.15% and 0.45%. US President Donald Trump said late Thursday that his administration would impose 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports from firms not moving production to the US.

The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported early Friday that Retail Sales rose by 0.6% on a monthly basis in July. This print followed the 0.3% increase recorded in June and came in better than the market expectation of 0.2%. This data failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in GBP/USD, which was moving sideways at around 1.3450 at the time of press.

After closing marginally lower on Thursday, EUR/USD holds its ground and trades in positive territory above 1.1650.

USD/JPY struggles to build on Thursday's gains and declines toward 148.00 in the European session on Friday. US President Trump signed an executive order implementing his trade agreement with Japan, which calls for a maximum 15% tax on most of Japan's imports, including automobiles and parts.

USD/CAD stays in negative territory at around 1.3800 after closing the previous four trading days higher. The Unemployment Rate in Canada is expected to edge higher to 7% in August.

Gold corrected from the record-high it set above $3,570 but found support before testing $3,500. XAU/USD holds steady at around $3,550 in the European morning on Friday.

Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls' result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls' figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls' figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the "Great Resignation" or the Global Financial Crisis.


Date

Created

 : 2025.09.05

Update

Last updated

 : 2025.09.05

Related articles


Show more

FXStreet

Financial media

arrow
FXStreet

FXStreet is a forex information website, delivering market analysis and news articles 24/7.
It features a number of articles contributed by well-known analysts, in addition to the ones by its editorial team.
Founded in 2000 by Francesc Riverola, a Spanish economist, it has grown to become a world-renowned information website.

Was this article helpful?

We hope you find this article useful. Any comments or suggestions will be greatly appreciated.  
We are also looking for writers with extensive experience in forex and crypto to join us.

please contact us at [email protected].

Thank you for your feedback.
Thank you for your feedback.

Most viewed

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Sinks below 0.80 on weak NFP data

The USD/CHF extended its losses on Friday, tumbling below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8020. The release of a worse than expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report, cemented the case for a Fed rate cut at the September meeting. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.7980, down 0.94%.
New
update2025.09.06 07:07

EUR/USD jumps to 1.1714 as weak US jobs data sinks Dollar

The EUR/USD advanced during the North American session after the latest employment report in the United Sates (US) showed the labor market is deteriorating. Consequently, investors ditched the US Dollar as the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 looms.
New
update2025.09.06 06:05

Canadian Dollar reverse bullish momentum, backslides further on Friday

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) soured on Friday, skidding into a fifth consecutive losing day against the US Dollar (USD) after employment figures from both Canada and the United States (US) showed both countries are failing to absorb the negative impacts of US President Donald Trump's trade war with the
New
update2025.09.06 04:13

Fed's Goolsbee remains undecided on September rate decision

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned on Friday that while sinking employment data is typically a cause for interest rate cuts, still-high inflation data is still cause for concern, and key Fed officials may not be fully sold on a September rate cut.
New
update2025.09.06 03:45

USD/CHF plunges below 0.8000 as weak NFP boosts odds of deeper Fed cuts

The Swiss Franc (CHF) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with USD/CHF sliding below the 0.8000 psychological mark to touch its lowest level since July 28.
New
update2025.09.06 03:27

Gold blasts to record $3,600 as weak NFP ignite Fed cut frenzy

Gold price rallies sharply and hits a new all-time high of $3,600 on Friday, following a soft Nonfarm Payrolls report, which raised speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is ready to resume rate cuts. XAU/USD trades at $3,594, up 1.30% at the time of writing.
New
update2025.09.06 02:47

Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbles 250 points as NFP figures dip faster than expected

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sank on Friday, falling nearly 500 points at its lowest after United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data showed the US added far fewer jobs than expected, pinning expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut on September 17.
New
update2025.09.06 02:37

WTI hits three-month low as OPEC+ meeting looms

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is heading into the weekend under heavy pressure, extending its losing streak to a third straight day as traders brace for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting on Sunday, September 7.
New
update2025.09.06 02:26

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Fed must re-establish its credibility

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the Federal Reserve (Fed) must re-establish its crediblity and trust with the American people during an interview with the Wall Street Journal, published on Friday.
New
update2025.09.06 02:06

US: We now expect a 50bps Fed cut in September - Standard Chartered

August non-farm payrolls rose just 22k, well below the 75k consensus; three-month average is now 29k.
New
update2025.09.06 01:41

Disclaimer:arw

All information and content provided on this website is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to solicit any investment. Although all efforts are made in order to ensure that the information is correct, no guarantee is provided for the accuracy of any content on this website. Any decision made shall be the responsibility of the investor and Myforex does not take any responsibility whatsoever regarding the use of any information provided herein.

The content provided on this website belongs to Myforex and, where stated, the relevant licensors. All rights are reserved by Myforex and the relevant licensors, and no content of this website, whether in full or in part, shall be copied or displayed elsewhere without the explicit written permission of the relevant copyright holder. If you wish to use any part of the content provided on this website, please ensure that you contact Myforex.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LINE

Myforex uses cookies to improve the convenience and functionality of this website. This website may include cookies not only by us but also by third parties (advertisers, log analysts, etc.) for the purpose of tracking the activities of users. Cookie policy

I agree
share
Share
Cancel