Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies to fresh 14-year high, eyes break above $40.00

• Silver advances to its strongest level since September 2011.
• Markets are pricing about an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, despite firmer core PCE inflation.
• Technical outlook points to a potential break above $40.00, with resistance at $41.48 and $43.40, while support holds at $39.00 and the 100-period EMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its rally for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, with spot prices climbing to fresh 14-year highs. The metal trades around $39.85 at the time of writing, surpassing the July 23 peak of $39.53, as sustained weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and firm safe-haven demand keep buyers firmly in control.

The rally comes as investors continue to bet on an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September monetary policy meeting, even after mixed US inflation data. July's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose to 2.9%YoY, its highest in five months, while headline PCE held steady at 2.6%. Although the firmer core reading complicates the policy debate, markets are increasingly focused on the labor market, where signs of cooling hiring momentum and softer wage growth suggest a bigger risk to the economy than lingering inflation pressures.

Swaps are still pricing about an 87% chance of a September cut, keeping the recent dovish tilt in focus. Alongside that, broader factors, including a weaker US Dollar, geopolitical frictions, and steady industrial demand from the solar and green energy sectors, continue to support XAG/USD's bullish momentum.

Adding to the backdrop, concerns over the Fed's independence have deepened after US President Donald Trump moved to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook on allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook has responded with a lawsuit seeking an injunction to block the decision, marking an unprecedented legal challenge to the central bank's autonomy. The episode has unsettled confidence in U.S. monetary policy and further pressured the Dollar, reinforcing safe-haven flows into silver. The move has added pressure to an already broadly weak US Dollar and reinforced safe-haven flows into Silver.

From a technical perspective, Silver's breakout above $39.50 has shifted the near-term bias firmly higher, with the metal now approaching the $40.00 psychological barrier. The 4-hour chart shows XAG/USD comfortably above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $38.35, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 74 in overbought territory, suggesting strong but stretched momentum. A sustained push through this level would open the door toward the $41.48 high from September 12, 2011, with the next upside target at $43.40, the peak from September 5, 2011. On the downside, immediate support lies at $39.00, followed by the 100-period EMA near $38.35, which should act as a key pivot zone for bulls.